关键词: 中国南海, 天然气水合物资源, 产业化发展, 低碳清洁能源, 非常规油气, 化石能源

Abstract: Due to the estimated reserves of natural gas hydrates in the South China Sea reaching up to 800×10⁸t oil equivalent, the Chinese government is actively encouraging the industrialization of these resources. This contrasts sharply with the decreasing theoretical research and financial investment in natural gas hydrates by foreign countries. Given the significant disparity in enthusiasm for natural gas hydrate research between China and other countries, as well as the risks and challenges associated with advancing the industrial development of natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea, this study integrates the latest global and South China Sea resource potential assessments. A comparative analysis is conducted on the differences in resource potential evaluations and perceptions between domestic and international scholars, and the underlying reasons for these differences. The latest evaluation results indicate that the global recoverable resources of natural gas hydrates have a mode value of 300×10⁸t oil equivalent and an average value of 680×10⁸t oil equivalent. For the South China Sea, the mode value of recoverable natural gas hydrate resources is 10×10⁸t of oil equivalent, and the average value is 26×10⁸t oil equivalent. The average value of recoverable resources in the South China Sea is less than 5 % and 20 % of the total conventional oil and gas resources globally and in the South China Sea, respectively. Thus, the estimated 800×10⁸ tons of oil equivalent in the South China Sea does not represent the actual recoverable resources but rather 30 to 80 times greater, which cannot be used for production guidance and strategic development research. The lack of uniformity in the concept and characterization methods of natural gas hydrate resources is one of the fundamental reasons for differences in understanding their development prospects. The current promotion of industrializing natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea faces risks and challenges in five aspects:small scale of recoverable resources, immature key technologies, weak market competitiveness, high commercial investment risks, and inconsistency with the national "dual-carbon" goals for large-scale development. Therefore, accelerating the industrialization of natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea requires in-depth research in four aspects:enhancing technological capabilities to increase recoverable resources, reducing extraction costs to expand the effective resource range, deepening geological assessments to clarify resource distribution characteristics, and conducting comprehensive geological surveys of various oil and gas resources to improve integrated development efficiency. With technological progress, natural gas hydrate resources are bound to be developed and utilized on a large scale, thus continued support and encouragement for relevant research and exploration are necessary.

Key words: South China Sea, natural gas hydrate resources, industrial development, low-carbon clean energy, unconventional oil and gas, fossil energy