Abstract: Peak oil theory is an influential theory concerning the long-term oil reserve and rate of oil production.The origin of the peak oil theory was discussed,and a comprehensive comparison of the different quantitative models used in predicting peak value was made.The forecast models can be categorized into three types of life models based on the limited life system,random models based on the theories of probability and statistics,generalized mathematical models based on actual production and logical reasoning.The development of the forecast models shows that the foreign forecast models evolved from monocyclic ones to multi-cyclic ones emphasized the models' vertical development,whereas Chinese models such as the Weng's model and many others emphasized their horizontal development.Future researches should combine the two fields,especially to push forward the vertical development of the models.The world oil peak value was calculated on the basis of the generalized Weng's model.The estimated peak of world oil production is about 4.03 billion tons,and the oil peak will arrive around by the year 2020.

Key words: world oil, peak oil, forecast model, peak oil forecasting, life cycle

摘要： 追溯了石油峰值理论的起源,对国内外一系列关于石油峰值理论模型的定量研究表明,石油峰值理论模型大体有3种类型:①基于生命有限体系的生命模型;②基于概率论和统计学理论的随机模型;③基于生产实践和理论推理的广义数学模型.从预测模型的发展过程中可以看出,国外从单循环模型发展到多循环模型,侧重于模型的纵向发展;而国内从翁氏模型发展到一系列的预测模型,侧重于模型的横向发展.利用广义翁氏模型对世界石油产量峰值进行的预测结果是:世界石油的峰值产量约为40.3×10⁸t,峰值出现时间大约在2020年.

关键词: 世界石油, 石油峰值, 预测模型, 峰值预测, 生命周期